$875B of commercial and multi-family debt matures in 2026, per MBA's 2025 maturity survey, down 9% from the $957B that matured in 2025. Read alone, that looks like relief. It isn't. Extend-and-pretend is functionally over: 2026 extensions are running a few months, not the year-plus grace sponsors got in 2023 and 2024. What actually happened is that only 50-55% of 2025's maturities paid off on schedule. The rest didn't disappear, they rolled forward into the 2026 and 2027 numbers we're looking at now. Kidder Mathews puts the total still working through the system at $1.26 trillion through 2027.
Every maturity-wall piece defaults to office. The actual 2026 concentration by property type: hotel and motel at 30%, industrial at 23%, office at 17%, multi-family at 13%. Hotel's exposure is nearly double office's, and it's the harder refinance of the two, because a hotel is a going-concern underwrite, not a lease-driven one. NOI moves with occupancy and ADR in a way a lender can't smooth over with a longer amortization schedule the way they can on a leased asset.
By lender channel: depositories hold $396B of 2026 maturities, 21% of their own CRE books. CMBS, CLO and ABS carry $200B, a full 25% of their outstanding. Credit companies and other non-bank lenders hold $163B, life companies $76B, agency $39B. The depository share matters most, because banks are also the channel tightening hardest on renewal terms, which is exactly where the placement problem concentrates.
"The gap between what a loan originated at and what it refinances at now runs about 200 basis points, 4.1-4.7% at origination against roughly 6.5% today. That's the number driving the wall, not headline rate direction."
Nothing about the 2026 print changes the actual fix: re-underwrite the asset against today's basis, build the case for the constraint that governs (usually debt yield, see our companion note), and take the file to the sources funding that profile now, not the ones that funded it three years ago. A bank that wrote the original loan against a lower cap rate is frequently not the right fit for the asset's current basis. A debt fund comfortable with a negative-arb bridge, or a lender underwriting the documented plan rather than trailing financials, often is.
The files that struggle most at maturity are the ones that start thirty days out. Sizing the deal, identifying the governing constraint, and matching against live appetite takes time a sponsor doesn't have if they wait for the notice from the servicer, especially on a hotel file, where the underwrite itself takes longer to build.